The best Young Forwards in the Championship – Season 2021 – 2022

It’s always very exciting to analyze and identify the top performances during a season in specific positions. By analyzing the metrics of English Championship young forwards, you can confirm what is already well known by just watching a game or a whole tournament. But, in some cases, there are players who might surprise you just because they excel in a category that is very important from a tactical point of view but does not get so much recognition by the media. These kinds of players are valuable to their teams and their coaches.

In this article, we will analyze the best performances of forwards who compete in this season’s Championship who are under the age of 22. In order to have a sense of objectivity, we have selected the most important metrics that affect a forward’s performance, which are the Goals, the Shots, the Assists. The effort is to present the top 10 players from each category. Based on that, and a grading system for adding points for each position in each category, we will try to export at the end a final ordered list. Of, course, this would be the Football365 opinion.

The data used for the analysis is for all the players from 16–22 who have played at least 10 games in the Championship for the season 2021–2022.

Goals

Joel Piroe of Swansea is the top scorer with 17 goals. When we analyze a forward, we have to always take into consideration not only the number of goals he has scored but also the goals per game and the expected goals. The total number of goals, even though it is an indicator of the forwards’ ability to score, is not the single factor we should take into consideration, because the specific number might have been affected by a game or a couple of games where the player had the opportunity to score 2 -3 goals (penalties, weaker opponent, etc.).

The goals per 90 is a more objective metric that shows the consistency of a player with regard to goals. Even though, Piroe is the first scorer, based on table 2, he needed more games to achieve this number. The specific metric, in simple words, can be considered as the efficiency that a forward has in scoring goals based on the minutes he is on the pitch. If we compare Piroe and Archer, the 2nd one is 35% more efficient per game.

Another factor that should be taken into consideration is the Expected goals (XG). The XG is a metric that Another factor that should be taken into consideration is the Expected goals (XG). The XG is a metric that in the last few years has been one of the most important to check when analyzing forward players. It’s a more “fair” way to judge the ability of a player to create chances or to be in the right place to finish an opportunity.

The end result (the actual goal) may sometimes be affected by other external factors such as the opponent’s goalkeeper ability, the defenders, a bad-conditioned pitch, etc. But, the ability to create quality chances is a factor that should characterize a top forward. Based on table 3, the best forward based on the quality of chances he has in every game is Daryl Dike. In 2nd and 3rd place, we see Piroe and Archer. If we combine all the three categories (Goals, Goals per 90 and XG per 90) Piroe and Archer are both located in the top 4 positions, so a first impression (considering only the data) is that both of them are among the top 3–4 forwards in the league for players aged under 22.

Expected Goals

Below you can  see the difference between the goals for the Top 10 scorers and the goals that they should have scored (excepted). As you can see, the majority of them are overperforming.

Shots

Shots are yet another metric that indicates how dangerous a player is to the opposing team. here we see the top 2 positions, Piroe and Archer. Of course, if we see the conversion rate of each shot that goes on target, the lack compared to other players is obvious. Their percentage is approximately 1 shot on target for every 2 shots they do. On top of the list is D. Markanday with an exceptional percentage of 80%, but, the number of shots he has attempted until now is only 5, so the position he appears to be in is plasmatic.

To take into consideration the percentage of shots on target, the player must have attempted a significant number of shots. For example, Aaron Connolly of Middlesbrough. He has the 3rd best number of shots per game and a total number of shots of 20, but his percentage is just 43%, so his efficiency is significantly below Piroe and Archer.

Assists

Goals are the only action in football that brings direct points to the team. Of course, if a forward can also do other actions on the pitch, his value will increase exponentially. Assists are probably the 2nd most important factor after goals and shots.

Top Performance

After reviewing the above tables and metrics and gathering all the data, we can extract a conclusion based only on quantitative analysis (numbers) and taking into consideration only the above categories. The 3 top young forwards (under 22) in this year’s championship, until now are J. Piroe (Swansea), C. Archer (Preston North End) and Daryl Dike (West Bromwich).

Conclusion

The article took into consideration only the metrics that can reveal the quantity aspect of the player’s performances. A more in-depth analysis of the player’s videos, individual tactical and technical behavior, but also taking into consideration other factors such as injuries, phycology, etc. will provide a more accurate picture of who is the best forward based on performance in the Championship among players under 22.